２０２０ 年的新冠肺炎疫情给中国消费带来严重冲击。 在这个背景下， 未来５~１０ 年中国消费的增长趋势如何? 消费结构将发生哪些重要变化? 消费在构建双循环新发展格局中扮演何种角色? 全面促进消费面临着哪些结构性矛盾和改革任务? 对此， 结合以往的研究， 适应新发展阶段的需求，我院以«中国消费» 为主题形成２０２０—２０２１ 年度改革研究报告， 对上述问题做出研究分析并提出相关的政策性建议。
The COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 produced a severe impact on consumption in China. In this context, what will be the growth trend of consumption in China in the coming 5 to 10 years? What important changes will take place in the consumption structure? What role will consumption play in building a new development paradigm of dual circulation? What structural contradictions and reform tasks do we face in comprehensively promoting consumption? In this regard, combined with previous researches and to meet the needs of the new development phase, CIRD completed the reform research report of 2020-2021 with China Consumption as the theme to made research and analysis on the above issues and put forward relevant policy-oriented suggestions.
Foreword / 1
Overview China in the New Era of Consumption / 5
I. Main Trend in the New Era of Consumption / 6
II. Consumption Upgrading Promoting High-Quality Development / 9
III. Promote Structural Reform in the Context of Consumption-Oriented
Transformation / 12
Chapter 1 The World’s Largest Consumer Market / 21
Section 1 Enter the New Era of Consumption / 22
I. Continual Expansion of Consumption Scale / 22
II. Overall Rapid Growth of New Forms of Consumption / 31
III. Formation of New Consumer Groups / 37
IV. Popularization of New Consumption Concepts / 40
V. Impetus for Entering the New Era of Consumption / 44
Section 2 Consumption under the Impact of Pandemic / 48
I. 2020: Consumption Was Seriously Impacted by the Pandemic / 48
II. Pandemic Has not Changed the Long-Term Growth Trend of
Consumption / 52
Section 3 14th Five-Year Plan: Consumption Will Maintain Fairly
Rapid Growth / 55
I. Continual Growth of Consumer Market / 55
II. Consumption Standard Keeps on Rising / 58
III. China Will Become the World’s Largest Consumer Market / 60
Chapter 2 Cities Drive Consumption / 69
Section 1 Integration of Urbanization with Consumption
Upgrading / 70
I. Consumption Upgrading and Urbanization / 70
II. Urbanization Drives Consumption Upgrading / 72
III. Consumption Function and Consumption Bearing Capacity Influence the
Competitiveness of Cities / 76
IV. Cities in China Strive to Foster New Forms of Consumption / 80
Section 2 Growth Space for Consumption in Urbanization / 84
I. Urbanization Is Still in Accelerated Development / 84
II. Urbanization Brings Huge Consumption and Investment Demands / 87
III. Urbanization Produces Huge Scale Effect of Public Consumption / 91
IV. Continuous Release of Consumption Demands Triggered by
Urbanization / 94
Section 3 Big Cities and Metropolitan Areas Become
Consumption Centers / 96
I. New Trend of Population Gathering in Central Cities and City Clusters / 97
II. Metropolitan Areas Become a Windvane Leading Consumption
Upgrading / 100
III. Regional Integration Pushes the Development of Regional Consumption
Center Cities / 104
Section 4 International Influence of Urbanization and
Consumption Upgrading / 107
I. An Emerging Power in Pursuit of International Quality for Commodities and
Services / 107
II. Rising of International Consumption Center Cities / 111
III. Important Influence on Regional Economy and World Economy / 114
Chapter 3 Promote Rural Consumption in All Aspects / 122
Section 1 Rural Area Is a Big Consumer Market / 123
I. A Massive Rural Population in China / 123
II. Income Level of Rural Residents Keeps on Rising / 126
III. Rural Area Is a Growing Big Consumer Market / 132
Section 2 Silent Changes in Rural Consumption / 136
I. Upgrading of Durable Consumer Goods for Rural Residents / 136
II. Rapid Growing of Public Consumption Demands of Rural Residents / 140
III. Fairly Rapid Growth of New Types of Consumption of Rural Residents / 143
Section 3 Promote New Types of Rural Consumption in All
Aspects / 148
I. Provide Important Conditions for the Overall Development of New Types of
Rural Consumption by Sending Elements to Rural Areas / 148
II. Promote New Types of Rural Consumption with Integrated Development
of Industries / 152
III. Promote the Development of Green Agriculture with Green Consumption
/ 155
IV. Push the Development of Intelligent Agriculture with Digital Consumption
/ 160
Chapter 4 Consumption Gives Rise to Industrial
Transformation / 166
Section 1 Benign Interaction of Consumption Structure
Upgrading with Industrial Structure Transformation / 167
I. Upgrading of Industrial Structure Is Accompanied by Evolution of
Consumption Structure / 167
II. The New Trend of Service-Oriented Consumption Gives Rise to New
Forms in the Development of Service Industry / 171
III. 2025: Service Industry Will Account for about 60% / 173
Section 2 Consumption Structure Upgrading Will Promote
Scientific and Technological Transformation / 177
I. The Upgrading of Consumption Structure Provides an Application Market
for Technological Transformation / 177
II. Modern Information Technology Accelerates Digital Transformation of
Industries / 183
III. Reshape the Core Competitiveness of Industries / 188
IV. Seize the First Change of the New Round of Global Industrial Revolution
with Intelligent Manufacturing / 192
Section 3 Green Consumption Promotes the Development of
Green Industries / 195
I. Green Consumption Promotes the Green Transformation of Traditional
Industries / 196
II. Speed up the Process of New Energy Revolution / 200
III. Green Consumption Pushes China to Achieve Peak Carbon Dioxide
Emissions and Carbon Neutrality / 205
Chapter 5 China’s Consumption: Significantly Positive
to the World’s Economic Growth / 212
Section 1 The World’s Largest Services Market and Trader of
Services / 213
I. China Will Become the World’s Largest Services Market / 213
II. Development Trend of the Service Trade / 216
III. High-Quality Development of the Service Trade / 222
IV. 2035: China Will Become the World’s Largest Trader in Services / 228
Section 2 Hainan Free Trade Port: Create the World’s Largest
Duty-Free Shopping Base / 231
I. Creating the World’s Largest Duty-Free Shopping Base as an Important
Goal / 231
II. China International Consumer Products Expo: A New Platform for the
World to Share the Consumption by 1.4 Billion People in China / 234
III. Improving the Duty-Free Shopping Service System Through the China
International Consumer Products Expo / 238
Section 3 Institutional Opening-Up in the Context of
Consumption-Oriented Transformation / 241
I. Push Forward High-Level Institutional Opening-Up Process / 241
II. Institutional Opening-Up Forced by the Consumption-Oriented
Transformation / 246
III. Push Forward Major Tasks of Consumption-Oriented Transformation with
Institutional Opening-Up / 249
IV. Push Forward the In-Depth Integration of China Market with World
Market with Institutional Opening-Up / 254
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