姚东旻，男，陕西汉中人，中央财经大学副教授，博士生导师，中国财政发展协同创新中心副主任，财政税务学院党委副书记（兼任），新市场财政学研究所副所长。曾在《经济研究》《世界经济》《管理世界》《新华文摘》《财政研究》《统计研究》及Journal of Chinese Political Science（《中国政治学刊》）、Journal of Asian Economics（《亚洲经济学评论》）、B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics（《伯克利理论经济学》）等国内外顶j刊物上发表论文60余篇，其专著《荣誉、地位的z优分配——组织中的非物质激励》荣获第七届吴玉章人文社会科学奖，其多篇论文获得第六次全国优秀财政理论研究成果二等奖、第七届教育部高等学校科学研究优秀成果奖(人文社科类)三等奖、第四届中国青年经济学者论坛优秀论文奖，其论文《财政学需要什么样的理论基础——兼评市场失灵理论的“失灵”》（原刊于《经济研究》）作为2018年度十大财政学理论研究成果之一，收录于2019年《中国财政年鉴》。曾主持国家社会科学基金、国家财政部、国家统计局、中国财政学会、中国石油天然气股份有限公司等多项重大课题研究。

主要研究方向：财政基础理论、组织经济学、博弈论应用、基于数据的因果推断。

本书系统地介绍和分析了在模糊性环境下，消费者的转基因食品购买行为和政府关于转基因食品标识政策的制定情况。全书共分五章:首先,围绕转基因食品安全性问题的发展脉络和争议展开，指出了决策者对模糊性水平的感知能力和喜好程度的差异将直接影响决策者在模糊性环境下的行为；其次，考察了主观期望效用模型和Choquet主观期望效用模型这两套选择公理体系的差异，通过彩票实验、猎鹿博弈等方法证明了基于Choquet积分形成的Choquet主观期望效用模型对于模糊性环境下的决策行为更具解释力；最后,在第三至第五章综合运用该模型和博弈论等方法，对消费者关于转基因食品的需求曲线和弹性、模糊性情境下消费者需求和标识政策对消费者需求的影响进行了较为深入的分析。

本书可作为高等院校和科研机构从事微观经济理论或农业经济学科研人员的参考用书，亦可供农业政策领域的决策管理人员参考。

目　录

第一章 转基因食品的不确定性问题—来自模糊性决策框架的 

理论解释 ···············································································1

一、消费者为什么谈转基因而色变 ····················································1

二、转基因食品安全性问题的争论—不确定性 ······························2

三、消费者选择转基因食品的模型建立 ··········································10

四、消费者转基因食品选择模型的求解与分析 ·······························16

五、本章结论 ···················································································27

第二章 不确定性环境下行为选择的决策逻辑—Choquet期望 

效用模型 ·············································································29

一、消费者在模糊性环境下如何决策 ··············································29

二、选择公理体系解释力的检验 ······················································30

三、不确定性环境下的行为选择实验—模糊性猎鹿博弈 ·············38

四、不确定性环境下的主观态度—风险态度和模糊性态度 ·········47

五、不确定性环境下的决策逻辑—CEU模型还是SEU模型 ······51

六、本章结论 ···················································································62

本章附录 ···························································································64

第三章 转基因食品的“需求曲线”—消费者不确定性状态下的 

行为决策 ·············································································65

一、消费者如何决定其对转基因食品的需求 ···································65

二、理论基础 ···················································································66

三、在不确定性环境下选择行为的模型构建 ···································70

四、模型求解与分析—消费者在不确定性环境下的行为选择 ·····71

五、现有关于转基因食品选择行为的研究 ·······································85

六、本章结论与政策启示 ·································································89

第四章 转基因食品标识政策的选择—基于不确定条件下消费者 

微观行为的分析 ··································································91

一、如何识别转基因食品的安全风险问题 ·······································91

二、理论渊源—转基因标识政策选择与影响研究 ························93

三、模型求解与分析 ········································································95

四、消费行为的微观分析 ·································································99

五、标识政策的宏观分析 ································································105

六、本章结论 ··················································································113

第五章 转基因产品标识政策差异的博弈分析 ································114

一、为何一样的科学，会有不一样的政策 ······································114

二、政策现状 ··················································································115

三、最优标识政策模型建立 ····························································121

四、模型求解与分析 ·······································································128

五、命题现实验证 ···········································································139

六、本章结论与政策建议 ································································141

参考文献 ·························································································143